一.Hafu yechipiri yekufanotaura kwakakosha

1.1 Kufanotaura Kwekugadzira

Sekureva kweLongzhong Ruzivo rwekutsvagisa, iyo aniline chigadzirwa indasitiri inoronga kuvaka mazana matatu nemakumi masere neshanu ezviuru zvematani ekugadzira muhafu yechipiri ye2023, uye hapana hurongwa hwekubvisa. Hunhu hutsva hwekugadzira hunonyanya kugoverwa muSouth China, uye bhizinesi rakarongwa rakashongedzerwa nemidziyo yepasi pechigadzirwa, kukura kwemaindasitiri echeni, uye kudzikiswa kwekutenga nekufambisa uye mamwe mari yekushandisa.

Mushure mekuburitswa kwesimba idzva rekugadzira aniline mune ramangwana, ichachinja zvakanyanya maitiro epamba aniline, uye kugadzirwa kweaniline muSouth China kuchapenya kune akatenderedza mafekitori ari kuzasi kwechinhambwe, zvichidzika kudzikisira mutengo wepasi pemvura mbishi kutenga. . Muchikamu chechipiri chegore, Yantai Wanhua yakaronga kugadzirisa, uye zvese zvayo zveaniline-MDI zvakamira, kana kukanganisa kupiwa kweaniline kune vamwe venguva refu vatengi. Mukuwedzera, Fujian Wanhua inoronga kuisa mukugadzirwa munaSeptember, iyo ine simba guru pamutengo weaniline kumaodzanyemba, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo weaniline muhafu yechipiri yegore unogona kuva 9000-12000 yuan / ton

1.2 Consumption Forecast

Muhafu yechipiri yegore, epamba polymerization MDI yekugadziridza michina yakatarisana muna Nyamavhuvhu, Mbudzi naZvita, iyo yese mudziyo inotarisirwa kudzikira zvakanyanya, mukuwedzera kune mhiri kwemakungwa zvishandiso muna Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu kune akawanda seti ekugadzirisa mudziyo, iyo yakazara. kupa chibvumirano, mutengo wemumba wepasi rose unogona kunge uine kuwedzera kudiki, asi muna Nyamavhuvhu naGunyana nekuda kwekuuya kwezhizha, tembiricha yepamusoro inogona kukanganisa kudzika kwakazara mutoro, kudzikamisa simba, kugadzirwa kushoma. Pamwe chete neindasitiri yemidziyo yemumba muiyo off-mwaka, mutengo wakaoma kutsigira. Muna Gumiguru naMbudzi, nemidziyo yemumba yakadzika uye maindasitiri epombi achipinda mumwaka wepamusoro wepamusoro, uye kugadzirisa zvine musoro kweimwe michina inotarisirwa, zvinokwanisika kuramba ichikwira. Muchikamu chechipiri chegore, chinonyanya kutariswa chiri pane shrinkage yekugovera uye kudivi rekuda kutevera. Tichifunga kuti mutengo wepolymerized MDI muhafu yekutanga yegore unochengetwa pa14300-16300 yuan/ton, kudiwa kunotarisirwa kupora mugore, mutengo wepakati muhafu yechipiri yegore wakakwira zvishoma kupfuura mwero. muhafu yekutanga yegore, uye mutengo unotarisirwa unochengetwa pa15500-17000 yuan / ton.

1.3 Mambure ekunze / mambure ekunze ekunze

Parizvino, kuwanikwa kwemusha uye kudiwa kweaniline kwakadzikama, uye kufarira kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuri kupera. Kunyangwe kudzikiswa kwemitengo yekugadzira aniline yemumba, kudiwa kwepasi kwemvura kwakasimba, kune kumwe kutsigirwa kwemutengo wepamusoro weaniline. Zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hweaniline inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muhafu yechipiri yegore haizoshanduki zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa nehafu yekutanga yegore, asi hazvirambidzwe kuti iyo yakasara aniline inotengeswa mhiri kwemakungwa mushure mekunge Fujian Wanhua yatanga kushanda. .

1.4 Kutengesa uye kuda chiyero chekufungidzira

二.Mutengo wehafu yechipiri yekufanotaura

Muhafu yechipiri yegore, mutengo wekufanotaura we pure benzene ndeye 6280-6800 yuan/ton, inoratidza maitiro ekutanga kusimuka nekudonha.

Panyaya yemafuta asina kuchena, mitengo yemafuta muhafu yechipiri yegore yakaita mukana wekudzokororwa, ichiratidza maitiro ekutanga kusimuka obva adonha zvakare pazere, uye avhareji mutengo wepamwedzi unogona kuchinjika muchikamu che75-78 US. madhora/barrel, ine diki diki kuchinja.

Panyaya yekupihwa, kuwanda kweiyo pure benzene kuwedzera muna 2023 kwakapedzwa muhafu yekutanga yegore, paine huwandu hunodarika mamirioni matatu ematani emayuniti matsva epetroleum benzene uye hydrobenzene ari kuiswa mukushanda, uye pure benzene. kugadzirwa muhafu yechipiri yegore kunotarisirwa kuratidza kuwedzera kwakakura kana zvichienzaniswa nehafu yekutanga yegore. Muhafu yechipiri yegore, chete 100,000 matani eAnqing Petrochemical simba yakawedzerwa muna Chikunguru, uye 200,000 matani eLongjiang Chemical yakanga ichangovakwa pakupera kwegore. Nekudaro, hydrogenated benzene ichine Puyang zhonghui 500,000 matani ematani, Ningxia Tongde's Tons quarter.

Panyaya yezvinodiwa, kugadzirwa kwepasi pemvura yakachena benzene muhafu yechipiri yegore kwakaiswa, kusanganisira yechina seti ye styrene yeZhejiang Petrochemical, styrene yeAnqing Petrochemical, Hengli itsva phenol uye adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan. , Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam nemimwe michina yakarongwa kuiswa mukushanda, uye Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, iyo yakamiswa muhafu yekutanga yegore. Pamusoro pechinyakare kudzika pasi, kudiwa kweoctane kubva ethylbenzene uye cyclohexane inotarisirwa kupa kukwidziridzwa kune yakachena benzene kushandiswa. Nekudaro, muhafu yekutanga yegore, mhando dzezasi dzakasangana nekudzikira kwemutoro weindasitiri mushure mekuwedzera kwesimba, uye kushandiswa kwe pure benzene kwakadzikira pane kugona kugadzira. Muchirevo chekushandiswa kwekupedzisira muhafu yechipiri yegore kuchiri kusava netariro, zvinotarisirwa kuti kushandiswa kwe pure benzene kuchagadziridzwa zvakanyanya pasi pane kukosha kweiyo theoretical.

Panyaya yezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kudiwa kwekupedzisira kuUnited States neEurope kunoramba kuine kushushikana, uye kufamba kwezhizha kuUnited States muhafu yechipiri yegore kunopera munaGunyana, kuda kweNortheast Asia kutumira pure benzene kuChina. inotarisirwa kuwedzera muhafu yechipiri yegore, uye vhoriyamu yekupinda inogona kudzoka kune 250-300,000 tons / mwedzi.

Pakazara, mutengo wemafuta asina kuchena muhafu yepiri yegore unogadziriswa, uye mari yekutsigira inobatanidzwa. Iyo yakadzika theoretical yekugadzira mudziyo inodarika kuisirwa kutsva kwepetroleum benzene uye hydrobenzene, asi iyo chaiyo yekushanda inotarisirwa kudzikira yese, uye huwandu hwekupinza hunotarisirwa kuwedzera, saka rutivi rwekugovera uye kudiwa kwe pure benzene inovandudzwa, asi. uwandu hushoma. Mutengo we pure benzene unotarisirwa muchikamu chetatu nekuda kwekudzoka kwemichina yekudzika pasi uye kuvakwa kwemidziyo mitsva kuwana simba rekukwira kwemutengo, asi nekuda kweiyo isina kusimba yakadzika pasi isiri-yekubatanidza purofiti, pure benzene yakasimuka pamusoro. iyo yakaderera, nekuburitswa kwehydrobenzene yekugadzira huwandu mukota yechina, iyo yekugovera uye yekuda divi zvakare yakashandurwa kune yakawanda kuwanikwa, ipapo mutengo unotarisirwa kuratidza kudzikira.

Muchikamu chechipiri, aniline yakakanganiswa nekushaya simba uye yakatanga kupinda mugero rekudzika. Zvichienderana nekugadziriswa kwakarongwa kweYantai Wanhua muna Nyamavhuvhu, kana chirongwa chekugadzirisa chikazadziswa sezvakarongwa, inogona kukwanisa kudhonza musika weaniline. Nekudaro, munaGunyana, Fujian Wanhua neChongqing Changfeng 2 mauniti akaiswa mukushanda, uye kupihwa kweaniline muSouth China neSouthwest China kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, kupfumisa nzvimbo dzakapoteredza dzepasi pekutenga. Pakazere, chikamu chechipiri uye chikamu chechitatu chemusika weaniline chisina kusimba, asi muchikamu chechina, vamwe vakadzika pasi vakatanga kugamuchira maodha egore rinouya, kudiwa kwezvinhu zvinogadzirwa kune kumwe kuwedzera, chikamu chechina chemitengo yeaniline inotarisirwa kudzoka. zvichienzaniswa nekota yechitatu.