一. Chikamu chechipiri chefungidziro huru

1.1 Kufanotaura Kwekugadzirwa

Sekureva kweongororo yeLongzhong Information, indasitiri yezvigadzirwa zveaniline inoronga kuvaka matani 385,000 esimba rekugadzira muhafu yechipiri ya2023, uye hapana hurongwa hwesimba rekubvisa. Simba idzva rekugadzira riri kupararira kuSouth China, uye bhizinesi riri kurongwa rine michina yezvigadzirwa iri pasi, kukura kwecheni yemaindasitiri, uye kudzikiswa kwemari yekutenga nekutakura nezvimwe zvekushandisa.

Mushure mekuburitswa kwesimba idzva rekugadzira aniline mune ramangwana, zvichachinja zvikuru maitiro emuno eaniline, uye kugadzirwa kweaniline kuSouth China kuchasvika kumafekitori akapoteredza ari pedyo, zvichideredza mutengo wekutenga zvinhu zvakabikwa. Muhafu yechipiri yegore, Yantai Wanhua yakaronga kugadzirisa, uye zvishandiso zvayo zvese zveaniline-MDI zvakamira, kana kukanganisa kupihwa kweaniline kune vamwe vevatengi vayo venguva refu. Pamusoro pezvo, Fujian Wanhua inoronga kuisa mukugadzirwa munaGunyana, izvo zvine simba guru pamutengo weaniline kumaodzanyemba, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo weaniline muhafu yechipiri yegore ungave 9000-12000 yuan/tani.

1.2 Kufanotaurwa Kwekushandiswa Kwezvinhu

Muhafu yechipiri yegore, michina yekuchengetedza yeMDI inogadziriswa nepolymerization yemumba inowanikwa muna Nyamavhuvhu, Mbudzi naZvita, mudziyo wese unotarisirwa kudzikira zvakanyanya, pamusoro pemidziyo yekune dzimwe nyika muna Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu kune akawanda maseti ekugadzirisa michina, kudzikira kwese kwekugovera, mutengo wemuno unogona kuwedzera zvishoma, asi muna Nyamavhuvhu naGunyana nekuda kwekusvika kwezhizha, mamiriro ekunze ekupisa kwakanyanya anogona kukanganisa mutoro wese wekudzikira, kuganhurirwa kwesimba, kugadzirwa kushoma. Pamusoro peindasitiri yemidziyo yemumba mumwaka wekunze, mutengo wacho wakaoma kutsigira. Muna Gumiguru naMbudzi, neindasitiri yemidziyo yemumba nemapaipi iri pasi iri kupinda mumwaka wepamusoro wetsika, uye kugadziriswa kwezvimwe zvishandiso kunotarisirwa, zvinokwanisika kuramba zvichikwira. Muhafu yechipiri yegore, chinangwa chikuru chiri pakuderedzwa kwekupa uye kuteverwa kwekudiwa. Tichifunga kuti mutengo wepolymerized MDI muhafu yekutanga yegore unochengetwa pa14300-16300 yuan/tani, kudiwa kunotarisirwa kudzokororwa mugore, avhareji yemutengo muhafu yechipiri yegore yakakwira zvishoma pane mwero muhafu yekutanga yegore, uye mutengo unotarisirwa unochengetwa pa15500-17000 yuan/tani.

1.3 Kufanotaura kwekutenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika/kutenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika

Parizvino, kuwanikwa kweaniline nezvinodiwa zvemuno zviri pakati nepakati, uye kufarira kutumira kunze kwenyika kuri kudzikira. Pasinei nekuderera kwemitengo yekugadzira aniline yemuno, kudiwa kwemuno kwakasimba, izvo zvinotsigira mutengo weaniline wakakwira. Zvinotarisirwa kuti huwandu hweaniline inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muhafu yechipiri yegore hahuzoshanduke zvakanyanya kana tichienzanisa nehafu yekutanga yegore, asi hazvirambidzwe kuti aniline yakawandisa ichatengeswa kunze kwenyika mushure mekunge Fujian Wanhua yatanga kushanda.

1.4 Kufanotaura kwehuwandu hwekuwanikwa kwezvinhu uye kudiwa kwezvinhu

二. Mutengo wehafu yechipiri yefungidziro

Muhafu yechipiri yegore, mutengo wePure Benzene unofungidzirwa kuva 6280-6800 yuan/tani, zvichiratidza kuti mutengo wacho unotanga kukwira wozodzikira.

Panyaya yemafuta asina kucheneswa, mitengo yemafuta muhafu yechipiri yegore yave nemukana wekukwira zvakare, zvichiratidza kukwira kwekutanga uye kudzika zvakare, uye avhareji yemutengo wepamwedzi inogona kuchinja kubva pamadhora ekuAmerica makumi manomwe nemashanu kusvika makumi manomwe nemasere pabhareri, nekuchinja kudiki.

Panyaya yekuwanikwa kwemafuta, huwandu hwakawanda hwekuwedzera kwe-pure benzene muna 2023 hwakapedzwa muhafu yekutanga yegore, nehuwandu hwematani anopfuura mamiriyoni matatu emafuta matsva epetroleum benzene nehydrobenzene ari kuiswa mukushanda, uye kugadzirwa kwe-pure benzene muhafu yechipiri yegore kunotarisirwa kuratidza kuwedzera kukuru zvichienzaniswa nehafu yekutanga yegore. Muhafu yechipiri yegore, matani 100,000 chete eAnqing Petrochemical capacity akawedzerwa muna Chikunguru, uye matani 200,000 eLongjiang Chemical akavakwa pakupera kwegore. Zvisinei, benzene ine hydrogenated ichiri nePuyang Zhonghui matani 500,000, Chongqing Huafeng matani 200,000, Ningxia Tongde Love matani 100,000, Zaozhuang Zhenxing matani 200,000, Henan Jinyuan Phase II matani 200,000 uye mimwe michina mitsva inosvika mamiriyoni 1.2 yakarongwa kugadzirwa mukota yechina.

Panyaya yekudiwa, kugadzirwa kwebenzene yakachena muhafu yechipiri yegore kwakanyanya kuunganidzwa, kusanganisira seti yechina yestyrene yeZhejiang Petrochemical, styrene yeAnqing Petrochemical, Hengli new phenol uye adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan, Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam nezvimwe zvishandiso zvakarongwa kuti zvishande, uye Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, iyo yakamiswa muhafu yekutanga yegore. Kuwedzera kune tsika dzekare, kudiwa kweoctane kubva kuethylbenzene necyclohexane kunotarisirwa kupa kuwedzera kushandiswa kwebenzene yakachena. Zvisinei, muhafu yekutanga yegore, mhando dzebenzene dzakawanzosangana nekuderera kwemutoro weindasitiri mushure mekuwedzera kugona, uye kushandiswa kwebenzene yakachena kwaive kwakaderera pane kugona kwekugadzira. Mumamiriro ekushandiswa kwekupedzisira muhafu yechipiri yegore, hazvisati zvave netariro, zvinotarisirwa kuti kushandiswa kwebenzene yakachena kuchadzokororwa zvakanyanya pasi kupfuura kukosha kwedzidziso.

Panyaya yekutenga zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kudiwa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muUnited States neEurope kuri kuramba kuchiderera, uye huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika munguva yezhizha muUnited States muhafu yechipiri yegore huchapera munaGunyana, kuda kweNortheast Asia kutumira benzene yakachena kuChina kunotarisirwa kuwedzera muhafu yechipiri yegore, uye huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika hunogona kudzokera padanho re250-300,000 matani pamwedzi.

Zvose, mutengo wemafuta asina kucheneswa muhafu yechipiri yegore wakatarwa, uye rutsigiro rwemari rwakabatanidzwa. Mudziyo wekugadzira mafuta unodarika kuiswa kwepetroleum benzene nehydrobenzene, asi mwero chaiwo wekushanda unotarisirwa kudzikira zvachose, uye huwandu hwezvinhu zvinopinzwa munyika hunotarisirwa kuwedzera, saka kugoverwa nekudiwa kwebenzene yakachena kwavandudzika, asi huwandu hwacho hwakaganhurirwa. Mutengo webenzene yakachena unotarisirwa mukota yechitatu nekuda kwekudzoserwa kwemidziyo yekugadzirisa inodzikira uye kuvakwa kwemidziyo mitsva kuti mutengo urambe uchikwira, asi nekuda kwekushaya simba kwepurofiti isina kubatanidzwa, benzene yakachena yakakwira pamusoro pemutengo wakaderera, nekuburitswa kwesimba rekugadzira hydrobenzene mukota yechina, kugoverwa nekudiwa kwave zvakare kwava kuwanda, saka mutengo unotarisirwa kuratidza kudzikira.

Muchikamu chechipiri chegore, aniline yakakanganiswa nekushaikwa kwezvinodiwa uye yakatanga kupinda muchikamu chekudzikira. Zvichibva pakuvandudzwa kwakarongwa kweYantai Wanhua muna Nyamavhuvhu, kana chirongwa chekugadzirisa chikazadzikiswa sezvakarongwa, chinogona kukwanisa kukwidza musika weaniline. Zvisinei, munaGunyana, Fujian Wanhua neChongqing Changfeng 2 mayuniti akaiswa kushanda, uye kuwanikwa kweaniline muSouth China neSouthwest China kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, zvichiwedzera manyuko ekutenga akapoteredza. Kazhinji, chikamu chechipiri nechikamu chechitatu chemusika weaniline zvakaderera, asi muchikamu chechina chegore, mamwe maodha egore rinouya akatanga kupihwa, kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kwakawedzera, chikamu chechina chemitengo yeaniline chinotarisirwa kudzokororwa zvichienzaniswa nechikamu chechitatu chegore.