Nzvimbo yemusika wefetereza ichavandudza here muna 2024? Musika wacho uchachinja here? Izvi zvinotevera kuongororwa kwakadzama kwemaitiro emangwana efotereza yekomboni kubva pamaonero enzvimbo yakakura, mutemo, kupa uye kudiwa patani, mutengo uye purofiti, uye kuongorora mamiriro emakwikwi emaindasitiri.

1. Kugadziriswa kwehupfumi hwepasi rose kunononoka, uye hupfumi hweChina hunotarisana nemikana nematambudziko

Pasi pesimba renjodzi dzakawanda senge unilateralism, geopolitics, kukakavara kwemauto, inflation, chikwereti chepasi rose uye kugadziridzwa kwemaindasitiri, kukura kwekutengeserana kwenyika dzese nekudyara kwadzikira zvakanyanya, uye kudzoreredza kwehupfumi hwenyika muna 2024 kuri kunonoka uye kusagadzikana, uye kusagadzikana. vari kuwedzera.

Panguva imwecheteyo, hupfumi hweChina huchasangana nemikana yakawanda nematambudziko. Mukana mukuru uri mukuenderera mberi kwekusimudzira kwe "zvivakwa zvitsva" uye "double cycle" mazano. Mitemo miviri iyi ichasimudzira zvine simba kusimudzira maindasitiri emumba uye kuwedzera simba remukati rekufambisa kwehupfumi. Panguva imwecheteyo, maitiro epasi rose ekuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana achiri kuenderera mberi, izvo zvinounza kudzvinyirira kudiki kune kunze kwenyika kweChina.

Kubva pamaonero ehuwandu hwemamiriro ekunze, mukana wekushomeka kwehupfumi hwepasi rose mugore rinotevera wakakura, uye zvigadzirwa zvinogona kuzununguswa zvinyoronyoro, asi zvichiri kukosha kufunga nezvekusagadzikana kunounzwa nekupokana kwegeopolitical kumusika. Mamiriro ezvinhu emumba ari nani anotarisirwa kuita kuti mitengo yefetereza idzoke mukushanduka kwenzvimbo.

2, zviwanikwa zvefetereza zvine hunhu hwakasimba, uye marongero anotungamira kusimukira kweindasitiri

Bazi rezvekurima nekumaruwa rakapa chiziviso che "Action Plan Yekudzikisa fetiraiza yemakemikari panosvika 2025", ichida kuti panosvika gore ra2025, kushandiswa kwenyika kwefetereza yemakemikari ekurima kunofanirwa kudzikira kwakadzikama uye kwakadzikama. Kuitwa chaiko ndekwekuti: panosvika gore ra2025, chikamu chenzvimbo yekushandiswa kwefeteraiza ichawedzera nezvikamu zvinodarika zvishanu kubva muzana, chiyero chekuvharirwa kwekuongorora ivhu uye tekinoroji yekugadzira fetereza yezvirimwa zvikuru munyika ichave yakagadzikana inopfuura 90%, uye huwandu hwekushandiswa kwefetereza pazvirimwa zvitatu zvikuru zvekudya munyika huchasvika pa43%. Panguva imwecheteyo, maererano ne “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” Mazano ekusimudzira ephosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, iyo indasitiri yefetereza inoramba ichitora girinhi, shanduko uye kusimudzira, kunaka uye hunyanzvi hwekuvandudza sechinangwa chese. chiyero chichawedzera kuvandudzwa.

Pasi pemamiriro e "kudzora simba kaviri", "maviri-kabhoni standard", kuchengetedzwa kwechikafu, uye fetireza "yakagadzika kuwanikwa uye mutengo", kubva pamaonero ekusimudzira indasitiri, ramangwana refotereza yakasanganiswa inofanirwa kuenderera mberi nekuvandudza maitiro. uye kuvandudza nzira yekugadzira kuchengetedza simba uye kuderedza kubudiswa; Panyaya dzemhando, zvinodikanwa kugadzira fetereza yemhando yepamusoro inoenderana nezvinodiwa zvekurima kwemhando yepamusoro; Mukuita kunyorera, kutariswa kunofanirwa kubhadharwa pakuvandudza mwero wekushandiswa kwefetereza.

3. Pachava nemarwadzo mukugadzirisa kwekupa uye kudiwa kwekugadzirisa

Kubva pakuona kwechirongwa nekumisikidzwa kuri kuvakwa, nhanho yekumisikidzwa kwenzvimbo yekugadzira yenyika yemabhizinesi akakura haina kumira, uye nzira yekubatanidza yakatwasuka ine hukuru hunoshanda hwekuwedzera purofiti yemabhizinesi akasanganiswa. , nekuti maitiro ekubatanidzwa kwemaindasitiri, kunyanya mabhizinesi ane zviwanikwa zvekushandisa uye hukuru-hukuru mashandiro achaita basa rinowedzera kukosha. Nekudaro, mabhizinesi ane chiyero chidiki, mutengo wakakwira uye pasina zviwanikwa achasangana nekukanganisa kukuru. Zvinoenderana nehuwandu husina kukwana, huwandu hwakarongwa hwekugadzira huri kuvakwa muna 2024 hwakareba matani 4.3 miriyoni, uye kuburitswa kwehunyanzvi hutsva hwekugadzira chimwe chinhu chinokanganisa mamiriro ezvinhu epamusha uye kusaenzana kwemusika wefetereza, yakawandisa kugadzirwa, uye kukwikwidzana kwemitengo kwakashata kwakaoma kwechinguva kudzivirira, kuumba imwe kumanikidza pamitengo.

4. Raw material cost

Urea: Kubva kudivi rekupa muna 2024, kugadzirwa kwe urea kucharamba kuchikura, uye kubva kudivi rekuda, indasitiri nekurima zvicharatidza imwe tarisiro yekukura, asi zvichibva pane yakawedzera pakupera kwa2023, kuwanikwa kwedzimba uye kudiwa muna 2024. kana kuratidza maitiro ekurerutsa, uye shanduko yehuwandu hwekutengesa kunze gore rinouya icharamba ichikanganisa maitiro emusika. Musika weurea muna 2024 unoramba uchichinja-chinja zvakanyanya, paine mukana wakakura wekuti mutengo wepakati wegiravhiti wadonha kubva muna 2023.

Phosphate fetiraiza: Muna 2024, mutengo wepamusha wemono ammonium phosphate une kudzikira. Kunyangwe kutengesa kunze kune zvishoma mukota yekutanga, kudiwa kwemukati kwechirimo uye mitengo yezvigadzirwa ichiri kutsigirwa nemitengo yakakwira, mutengo uchachinja zvakanyanya pa2850-2950 yuan/ton; Mukati-mumwaka wechikamu chechipiri, fetiraiza yezhizha inonyanya kukwira nitrogen, kudiwa kwephosphorus kunogumira, uye mutengo wemono-ammonium phosphate uchaderera zvishoma nezvishoma pasi pesimba rekuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu; Muchikamu chechitatu nechina chemwaka wekutengesa kwematsutso mudzimba, kudiwa kwefosfeti yakakwira yephosphorus yakakura, uye kudiwa kwenyika dzese kunosimudzirwa, pamwe nekutevera kudiwa kwekuchengetwa kwechando, uye mbishi phosphate ye. tsigiro yemutengo wakaoma, mutengo we mono-ammonium phosphate uchadzoka.

Potassium Fertilizer: Muna 2024, maitiro emutengo wemusika wepotashi wepamba uchachinja zvichienderana nemwaka wepamusoro-soro wemusika, uchitungamirwa nekuomarara kudiwa kwemusika wechirimo, mutengo wemusika we potassium chloride uye potassium sulfate ucharamba uchikwira. , uye kondirakiti ye2023 inopera musi waZvita 31, 2023, uye icharamba yakatarisana nemamiriro ekutaurirana echibvumirano chikuru che2024. Pane mukana mukuru wekuti nhaurirano dzichatanga mukota yekutanga. Mushure mekupera kwemusika wechirimo, musika wepotashi wepamba uchapinda mune yakareruka maitiro, kunyangwe pachine kudiwa kwemisika yezhizha uye yekuvhuvhuta mune inotevera nhanho, asi ishoma kune potashi.

Tichifunga nezvemaitiro matatu ari pamusoro ezvigadzirwa zvekutanga muna 2024, pane mukana wakakura wekuti mutengo wepagore we2023 uchadzikira, uyezve mutengo wefotereza wakasanganiswa uchasunungurwa, zvichikanganisa mutengo wefetereza yakasanganiswa.

5. Kudzika kwemvura kudiwa

Parizvino, maererano neiyo huru yekudzika zviyo, icharamba ichida kuti huwandu hwayo hwekugadzira huwedzere zvishoma nezvishoma muna 2024, uye zvinobuda zvicharamba zviri pamusoro pe 1.3 matiriyoni katsi, kuve nechokwadi chekuzviraramisa muzviyo uye kuchengetedzwa kwakakwana kwechikafu. Mumamiriro ezvinhu ehurongwa hwekuchengetedzeka kwechikafu, kudiwa kwekurima kuchadzikama nekuvandudza, zvichipa rutsigiro rwakanaka kune chikamu chinodiwa chefotereza yakasanganiswa. Pamusoro pezvo, tichifunga nezvekuvandudzwa kwekurima kwakasvibira, musiyano wemutengo pakati pefetereza mitsva nefotereza yakajairwa unotarisirwa kuramba uchidzikira, uye chikamu chefotereza chakajairika chichasvinwa, asi zvichatora nguva kuti shanduko. Naizvozvo, zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa uye kushandiswa kwefetereza yakasanganiswa hakuzonyanya kushanduka muna 2024.

6. Maonero emutengo wemusika

Zvichienderana nekuongororwa kwezvinhu zviri pamusoro, kunyangwe kupihwa uye kudiwa kwave nani, kudzvanyirira kwakanyanya kuchiripo, uye mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvinogona kusunungurwa, saka musika wefotereza yakasanganiswa unotarisirwa kudzoka zvine musoro muna 2024, asi panguva imwe chete. , musika wakakamurwa uchiripo, uye mabatiro emitemo anofanirwa kutariswa. Kumabhizinesi, kungave kuri gadziriro yezvakagadzirwa mwaka usati wasvika, iko iko kugadzirwa kwemwaka wepamusoro, mashandiro emhando, nezvimwewo, akatarisana nebvunzo.