Dambudziko! Chemical hofori yambiro! Kutya "kucheka kugovera" njodzi!

Nguva pfupi yadarika, Covestro akazivisa kuti 300,000-tons TDI chirimwa muGermany chaive chekumanikidza majeure nekuda kwekudonha kweklorini uye yaisakwanisa kutangwazve munguva pfupi. Zvinotarisirwa kutangazve kugovera mushure meNovember 30.

BASF, iriwo kuGermany, yakaoneswawo 300,000-tani TDI chirimwa chakavharwa kuti chigadziriswe pakupera kwaApril uye chisati chatangwa patsva. Pamusoro pezvo, Wanhua's BC unit iri kuitawo gadziriro yenguva dzose. Nenguva pfupi, European TDI kugadzirwa kwesimba, iyo inoverengera ingangoita 25% yepasi rose, iri muvacuum state, uye kupihwa kwedunhu uye kusaenzana kwekuda kuri kuwedzera.

"Nzira yehupenyu" yekutakura yakagurwa, uye hofori dzemakemikari dzinoverengeka dzakapa yambiro yechimbichimbi

Rhine River, iyo inogona kunzi "nzira yehupenyu" yehupfumi hweEurope, yakaderedza huwandu hwemvura nekuda kwekupisa kwepamusoro, uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzenzizi dzinokosha dzinotarisirwa kuva dzisingafambiki kubva muna August 12. Vanoongorora nezvemamiriro ekunze vanofanotaura kuti kusanaya kwemvura kungangoramba kuchienderera mberi. mwedzi iri kuuya, uye nzvimbo yemoyo yeindasitiri yeGermany inogona zvakare kudzokorora zvikanganiso zvakafanana, ichitambura zvakanyanya kupfuura kutadza kwenhoroondo yeRhine muna 2018, zvichiwedzera dambudziko resimba reEurope.

Nzvimbo yeRwizi Rhine kuGermany inosvika chingangoita chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chenyika yeGermany, uye inoyerera nemunzvimbo dzakati wandei dzakakosha dzemaindasitiri muGermany senge nharaunda yeRuhr. Inosvika gumi muzana yemakemikari anotumirwa muEurope anoshandisa Rhine, kusanganisira mbishi, mafetireza, zvigadzirwa zvepakati uye makemikari apedzwa. Iyo Rhine yakaverengera inosvika makumi maviri nesere muzana yezvekutumirwa kwemakemikari eGerman muna 2019 na2020, uye petrochemical logistics yemakemikari hofori akadai seBASF, Covestro, LANXESS neEvonik anonyanya kutsamira pakutakura pamwe neRhine.

Parizvino, gasi rechisikigo nemarasha muEurope hazvina kugadzikana, uye mwedzi uno, kurambidzwa kweEU pamarasha eRussia kwakatanga kushanda zviri pamutemo. Pamusoro pezvo, pane nhau dzekuti EU icharovawo Gazprom. Nhau dzinoenderera mberi dzinokatyamadza dzakanzwika kuindasitiri yemakemikari yepasi rose. Sekudanwa kwekumuka, hofori zhinji dzemakemikari dzakadai seBASF neCovestro dzakapa yambiro yekutanga munguva pfupi iri kutevera.

Kambani yefetereza yekuNorth America, Mosaic, yakataura kuti kurimwa kwezvirimwa pasi rose kwanetsa nekuda kwezvinhu zvisina kumira zvakanaka zvakaita sekunetsana kuri pakati peRussia neUkraine, kuenderera mberi kwekupisa kwakanyanya muEurope neUnited States, uye zviratidzo zvekusanaya kwemvura kuchamhembe kweBrazil. Kune maphosphates, Legg Mason anotarisira kuti zvirambidzo kunze kwenyika mune dzimwe nyika zvingangowedzerwa mukati megore rose uye muna 2023.

Kambani yemakemikari akasarudzika Lanxess yakati gasi embargo ichave ne "njodzi" kuindasitiri yemakemikari yeGerman, ine zvidyarwa zvine gasi zvakanyanya kuvhara kugadzira nepo vamwe vachizoda kudzikisa zvinobuda.

Mugoveri mukuru wemakemikari pasi rose, Bruntage, akati kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi kuchaisa indasitiri yemakemikari yekuEurope parumananzombe. Pasina kuwana simba rakachipa, kukwikwidza kwepakati-kurefu kwenguva refu kweindasitiri yemakemikari yeEuropean kuchatambura.

Azelis, muBelgian specialty chemicals distributor, akati pane zvimhingamipinyi zviri kuramba zvichienderera mberi mukugadzirwa kwepasi rose, kunyanya kufamba kwezvinhu kubva kuChina kuenda kuEurope kana kuAmerica. Mhenderekedzo yeUS yanga ichinetswa nekushomeka kwevashandi, kunonoka kubviswa kwekutakura zvinhu uye kushomeka kwevatyairi vemarori muUS neEurope kunokanganisa kutakura.

Covestro akayambira kuti kugoverwa kwegasi rechisikigo mugore rinotevera kunogona kumanikidza zvivakwa zvekugadzira zvega kuti zvishande zvakaderera kana kuvharika zvachose, zvichienderana nehupamhi hwekudzikiswa kwegasi, izvo zvinogona kutungamira mukudonha kwese kwekugadzira uye kugovera cheni uye kukanganisa. zviuru zvemabasa.

BASF yakaramba ichipa nyevero kuti kana kupiwa kwegasi rechisikigo kuwira pasi pe50% yehuwandu hunodiwa, huchafanira kuderedza kana kutovhara zvachose pasi rose guru rinosanganiswa rekugadzira makemikari base, German Ludwigshafen base.

Iyo Swiss petrochemical giant INEOS yakati mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvekushanda kwayo kuEurope wakakwira zvakanyanya, uye kukakavara pakati peRussia neUkraine uye zvirango zvehupfumi zvakakonzerwa neRussia zvakaunza "matambudziko makuru" kumitengo yemagetsi uye kuchengetedzwa kwesimba muEurope yese. indasitiri yemakemikari.

Dambudziko re "kunamatira mutsipa" rinoenderera mberi, uye shanduko yejasi nemaketani eindasitiri yemakemikari yava pedyo.

Hofori dzemakemikari dziri kure nezviuru zvemamaira dzakagara dzichiyambira, dzichiunza madutu ane ropa. Kune makambani emakemikari emumba, chinhu chakanyanya kukosha ndechekukanganisa kwavo maindasitiri chain. nyika yangu ine kukwikwidza kwakasimba mune yakaderera-yekupedzisira maindasitiri cheni, asi ichiri isina kusimba muzvigadzirwa zvepamusoro. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya aripowo muindasitiri yemakemikari iripo. Parizvino, pakati peanopfuura zana nemakumi matatu akakosha emakemikari zvinhu muChina, 32% yemhando idzi dzichiri dzisina chinhu, uye 52% yemhando idzi dzichiri kuvimba nekutenga kunze kwenyika.

Muchikamu chepamusoro chejasi, kune zvakare akawanda emagetsi akasarudzwa kubva kune mhiri kwemakungwa zvigadzirwa. DSM mune epoxy resin indasitiri, Mitsubishi neMitsui muindasitiri yekunyungudutsa; Digao neBASF muindasitiri ye defoamer; Sika naValspar muindasitiri yekurapa mumiririri; Digao uye Dow mune wetting agent industry; WACKER naDegussa muindasitiri yetitanium dioxide; Chemours uye Huntsman mune titanium dioxide indasitiri; Bayer uye Lanxess muindasitiri ye pigment.

Kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta, kushomeka kwegasi rechisikigo, marasha eRussia embargo, mvura yekukurumidzira uye magetsi, uye iko zvino kutakurwa kwakavharwa, izvo zvinokanganisawo kupihwa kwemakemikari mazhinji ekupedzisira. Kana zvigadzirwa zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvepamusoro-soro zvikarambidzwa, kunyangwe asiri ese makambani emakemikari anodhonzwa pasi, anozokanganiswa kune akasiyana madhigirii pasi pekuita kweketani.

Kunyangwe kune vagadziri vepamba vemhando imwechete, zvipingamupinyi zvehunyanzvi zvepamusoro hazvigone kuputswa munguva pfupi. Kana makambani ari muindastiri achiri kutadza kugadzirisa kwavo cognition uye kutungamira kutungamira, uye vasingateereri kutsvagurudzo yesainzi uye tekinoroji nekusimudzira nekuvandudza, rudzi urwu rweDambudziko re "kunamatira mutsipa" richaramba richiita basa, uye zvino ichakanganiswa mune yese yemhiri kwemakungwa force majeure. Kana hofori yekemikari iri kure nezviuru zvemakiromita ikaita tsaona, hazvidzivisiki kuti mwoyo uchakwangwa uye kuzvidya mwoyo kunenge kusina kujairika.

Mitengo yemafuta inodzokera padanho remwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura, yakanaka here kana kuti yakaipa?

Kubva kutanga kwegore rino, maitiro emitengo yemafuta epasi rose anogona kutsanangurwa semamonyoroka. Mushure memafungu maviri apfuura ekukwira nekudzika, mitengo yemafuta epasi rose nhasi yadzokera pakuchinjika kunosvika madhora makumi mapfumbamwe / dhiramu pamberi paKurume gore rino.

Sekureva kwevanoongorora, kune rumwe rutivi, tarisiro yekuvandudza hupfumi husina kusimba mumisika yemhiri kwemakungwa, pamwe nekukura kunotarisirwa mukupihwa kwemafuta asina mafuta, kuchadzora kukwira kwemitengo yemafuta kune imwe nhanho; kune rumwe rutivi, mamiriro ezvinhu epanguva ino ekukwira kwemitengo yakakwira akaumba tsigiro yakanaka yemitengo yemafuta. Mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma kudaro, mitengo yemafuta emafuta epasi rose iripo zvino iri mudambudziko.

Masangano ekuongorora musika akataura kuti mamiriro aripo ekushomeka kwemafuta asina kuchena achiri kuenderera mberi, uye rutsigiro rwepasi pemitengo yemafuta rwakagadzikana. Nekudaro, nekufambira mberi kutsva munhaurirano dzenyukireya dzeIran, musika zvakare une tarisiro yekusimudzwa kwekurambidzwa kwezvigadzirwa zvemafuta asina mafuta eIran mumusika, izvo zvinowedzera kumanikidza mitengo yemafuta. Iran ndeimwe yevashoma vanogadzira oiri mumusika wazvino unogona kuwedzera zvakanyanya kugadzirwa. Kufambira mberi kwenhaurirano dzechibvumirano chenyukireya yeIran kwave shanduko huru mumusika wemafuta asina kuchena nguva pfupi yadarika.

Misika inotarisa pahurukuro dzenyukireya dzeIran

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kushushikana nezve tarisiro yekukura kwehupfumi kwakaisa kudzvinyirira pamitengo yemafuta, asi kunetsana kwemaitiro padivi rekupa mafuta kwave kutsigirwa kwemitengo yemafuta, uye mitengo yemafuta iri kutarisana nekumanikidzwa kumativi ese ekukwira nekudonha. Nekudaro, nhaurirano pamusoro penyaya yenyukireya yeIran dzichaunza zvinogona kusiyanisa pamusika, saka zvave zvakare tarisiro yekutariswa kwemapato ese.

Commodity information agency Longzhong Information yakaratidza kuti nhaurirano pamusoro penyaya yenyukireya yeIran chiitiko chakakosha mumusika wemafuta asina kuchena munguva pfupi iri kutevera.

Kunyangwe EU yakataura kuti icharamba ichifambisira mberi nhaurirano dzenyukireya dzeIran mumavhiki mashoma anotevera, uye Iran yakataurawo kuti ichapindura "zvinyorwa" zvakarongwa neEU mumazuva mashoma anotevera, United States haina. akaita chirevo chakajeka pane izvi, saka kuchine kusava nechokwadi nezvemugumisiro wekupedzisira wenhaurirano. Naizvozvo, zvakaoma kusimudza Iranian mafuta embargo husiku.

Huatai Futures ongororo yakaratidza kuti kuchine misiyano pakati peUnited States neIran pamashoko akakosha ekutaurirana, asi mukana wekusvika kune imwe mhando yechibvumirano chenguva pfupi gore risati rapera hazvirambidzwe. Iyo Iran nhaurirano yenyukireya ndeimwe yeashoma makadhi emagetsi ayo United States inogona kutamba. Chero bedzi kutaurirana kwenyukireya kweIran kuchikwanisika, kukanganisa kwayo pamusika kunogara kuripo.

Huatai Futures yakataura kuti Iran ndiyo imwe yenyika shoma dziri mumusika wezvino inogona kuwedzera zvakanyanya kugadzirwa, uye nzvimbo inoyangarara yemafuta eIran pagungwa nenyika inosvika miriyoni makumi mashanu. Kana zvirango zvasimudzwa, zvichave nekukanganisa kukuru pamusika wemafuta kwenguva pfupi.