[Sumo] : Muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zve2023, maitiro ese emangwana emumba methanol akadonha pekutanga uye akasimuka, muhafu yekutanga yegore, iyo isina muganho yakanaka yepfungwa yemusiyano wemitengo wazvino yakaita purofiti yakanaka, uye kutenderera kwe zvinhu zvakaramba zvakasimba, zvichiita hafu yekutanga yegore kunyanya mwedzi wega wega pasi pekushanda kwakapfava; Ramangwana rakadzokororwa muchikamu chechitatu, asi chiteshi chakavhura nzira yekuchengetera, uye nzvimbo yacho yakagumisa premium pateni kusvika kumwedzi gumi.

Shanduko yekushanda kwemusika mukati megore inogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zviviri:

Danho rekutanga (Ndira 1 - Chikumi 12) : nhanho iyi yekuvhunduka kwemutengo wemafuta epasi rose yakadonha, kunyangwe pakave nekudzika kwakasimba panguva yekugadzirwa kweOpec, asi nguva yaive pfupi, uye munguva pfupi yakadonha zvakare nekuda kwekuoma kwekuda kutevera. -kumusoro. Ramangwana reMethanol panguva ino yeiyi huru yekutengesa logic ndeyemafuta asina kuchena, iyo United States mubereko wekuwedzera kutenderera uye zvimwe macro zvinhu uye mutengo (kureva marasha), mitengo yemarasha inoramba ichidonha (iyi network inoteedzera Inner Mongolia kune fekitori marasha akadonha. kusvika kune yakaderera pedyo ne620 yuan/ton), ichitsigira kufamba kwemari kwemabhizinesi munzvimbo yekugadzira kuti idzoke, kupa zvinotarisirwa pasi pekumanikidzwa kwedhisiki kunyange itsva yakaderera, yakaderera yakawira ku1953 yuan/ton muna June.

Chikamu chechipiri (Chikumi 13 - Gunyana 28) : nhanho iyi methanol ramangwana rakadzika, kudzikira kwakanaka kwakaunzwa nemutengo wepfungwa kwakapera, dhisiki yakaratidza kutsigirwa kwakasimba muna 1950-2000 yuan/ton, uye huru yekutengesa logic ye rebound. zvaitarisirwa mukudiwa. Mafuta asina kuchena mumamiriro ekuderera uye kudiwa kwakapfuura zvinotarisirwa, zvichikonzera kuenderera mberi kwekuderera, kutsigira kudzoreredzwa kwakasimba mumitengo yemafuta; Methanol pachayo ndiyo yakazara kupihwa uye kudiwa zvakapetwa kaviri, iyo mainland kupihwa kwemasheya uye michina mitsva yakamhara, asi hesiti inoramba iri padanho rakaderera, musika unonzwisisa kuti chinyakare kuzasi kwemvura kudiwa kwakagadzikana; Panguva imwecheteyo, kunyange zvazvo huwandu hwepamusoro hwekutengesa kunze huri 1.3-1.4 mamiriyoni ematoni / mwedzi, iyo yakaderera yezvinyorwa mukutanga kwekutanga inoita kuti misika ifunge kuti kumanikidzwa kwenzvimbo yechiteshi hakusi kukuru, uye kugoverwa kwezvinhu zvinotenderera. yakasimba. Yakabatana netarisiro yekutangwazve kweXingxing neShenghong uye kudzika kwakazotevera, tafura yechiteshi inoda kutsigirwa nekukwidziridzwa kwakapetwa kwemethanol mune macro uye kudiwa kwayo. Gunyana 19, iyo yepamusoro-soro rebound kusvika 2662 yuan/ton.

Tichitarisira chikamu chechina, iyo inotengeswa kubva muna Gumiguru kusvika munaNovember ichiri kuchengetwa pamwero wepamusoro pematani anopfuura mamiriyoni 1.3, kunyange zvazvo misika inotarisirwa kuderedza pasi pemigumisiro yakaipa yezvirambidzo zvegesi zveIran muna December, asi kuchengetedza kwemwaka. kusimba kana kushoma pane mumakore apfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, mutengo wemusika mukuru muna 2023 wanga uri mune yakasimba, uye kunyangwe huwandu hwekudzokera shure kuJiangxi, Guangxi neHunan hwakawanzoitika muSouth China. Zvinotarisirwa kuti munguva yechando ye2023, maitiro edunhu angave akasiyana nemakore apfuura, mutsauko wemitengo pakati penyika huru neEast China ports ungave wakaoma kuwedzera kune mainland cargo arbitrage port volume, bhodhi remangwana rinochengetedza mutengo. yezvinhu zvinounzwa kunze kwenyika, izvo zvine kumanikidzwa kukuru kwekupa, uye tsigiro yemutengo wesimba inounzwa nemarasha nemafuta asina kuchena, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti methanol ichauya muchikamu chechina kana mukana wakakura wekusasimba.