Nhau

Misika yekuEurope yakaramba yakakwira uye isina kugadzikana vhiki rino, uye mamiriro ezvinhu muMiddle East akamanikidza Chevron kuvhara gasi rayo rekunze kweSyria, uye musika wakaramba uchitya, asi mitengo yeTTF yeramangwana yakakwira uye isina kugadzikana nekuda kwekuwanda kwemusika pari zvino.

MuUnited States, nekuda kwekunonoka kwekuda uye kudzikira kwekutya, kutengeswa kweLNG muUnited States kwaderera vhiki rino, kutengeswa kwemafuta kunze kwenyika kwaderera, uye kuwanikwa kwegasi risina kugadzirwa kubva kunzvimbo dzekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwaderera, asi nekuda kwekuchinja kwezvibvumirano zveNG futures mwedzi uno, mutengo wegasi rechisikigo muUnited States wakwira.

a) Pfupiso yemusika

Kubva musi wa24 Gumiguru, mutengo wenguva yemberi wegesi yechisikigo yeHenry Port (NG) yeUnited States waive 3.322 US dollars/miriyoni yekupisa kweBritain, zvichienzaniswa nenguva yapfuura (10.17) yakawedzera ne0.243 US dollars/miriyoni yekupisa kweBritain, kuwedzera kwe7.89%; Mutengo wenguva yemberi wegesi yechisikigo yeDutch (TTF) waive $15.304 / mmBTU, wakakwira ne $0.114 / mmBTU kubva panguva yapfuura (10.17), kana 0.75%.

MuUnited States, mitengo yemangwana yeHenry Port (NG) yeUnited States yakaratidza kukwira kwemitengo mushure mekudzikira kwese kwevhiki, mitengo yemangwana yegesi yechisikigo yeUnited States yakaratidza kudzikira kwemitengo vhiki rino, asi nekuda kwekuchinja kwechibvumirano, mitengo yemangwana yeNG yakakwira.

Kudivi rekutengesa kunze kwenyika, zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zveLNG zvakaderera vhiki rino nekuda kwekuderera kwezvinodiwa uye kutya kuri kudzikira, uye zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvakaderera.

Kubva pamaonero ehunyanzvi, United States Henry Port futures (NG) inyika yakaderera kukwira, mutengo weUnited States Henry Port futures (NG) kusvika pa3.34 US dollars/miriyoni yeBritish fever wava pedyo, KDJ low yava kuda kukwira kubva paforogo, MACD iri pasi pe zero bottoming, kudzikira kwamira, mutengo weUnited States Henry Port futures (NG) waratidza kudzikira kwe rebound trend vhiki rino.

MuEurope, zvinhu zviri mumusika weEurope zvakaramba zvichiwedzera, zvichienderana nedata reEuropean Natural Gas Infrastructure Association rinoratidza kuti kubva musi wa23 Gumiguru, zvinhu zvose zviri muEurope zvaive 1123Twh, zvine huwandu hwe98.63%, kuwedzera kwe0.05% pazuva rakapfuura, uye kuwedzera kuri kuramba kuripo kwezvinhu zviri mumusika.

Kubva musi wa24 Gumiguru, US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) inotarisirwa kuwana mitengo ye$2.95 / mmBTU, yakakwira ne$0.01 / mmBTU kubva muchikamu chegore rapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe0.34%. Mutengo weCanadian Natural Gas (AECO) waive $1.818 / mmBTU, yakakwira ne$0.1 / mmBTU kubva mumwedzi wapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe5.83%.

Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) inotarisira kuti mitengo yakaderera icharamba yakagadzikana, kutengeswa kweLNG kunze kwenyika kwaderera, kudiwa kukuru kwemusika wevatengi kunze kwedunhu kucharamba kwakagadzikana, pasina rutsigiro rwakajeka, Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) inotarisirwa kuramba yakagadzikana mitengo yakaderera.

Kubva musi wa24 Gumiguru, mutengo weNortheast Asia wakasvika kuChina (DES) waive $17.25 / miriyoni BTU, wakakwira ne $0.875 / miriyoni BTU kubva muchikamu chakapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe5.34%; mutengo weTTF waive $14.955 / mmBTU, wakakwira ne $0.898 / mmBTU kubva muchikamu chakapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe6.39%.

Mitengo yevatengi vari kutengeswa zvakanyanya iri kuwedzera, kutya kuripo pari zvino kwazara, pfungwa dzekufungidzira pamusika dzakasimba, vatengesi vari kutengeswa zvakanyanya mitengo yakakwira, izvo zviri kukonzera kuti mitengo yevatengi vari kutengeswa zvakanyanya yakwira.

b) Zvinhu zviri mudura rezvinhu

Kwevhiki rakapera musi wa13 Gumiguru, sekureva kweUS Energy Agency, zvinhu zvakaunganidzwa negasi rechisikigo muUS zvaive 3,626 bhiriyoni cubic feet, kuwedzera kwe97 bhiriyoni cubic feet, kana 2.8%; Zvinhu zvakaunganidzwa zvaive 3,000 cubic feet, kana 9.0%, zvakakwirira kupfuura gore rapfuura. Izvi zviri 175 bhiriyoni cubic feet, kana 5.1%, pamusoro peavhareji yemakore mashanu.

Muvhiki rakapera musi wa13 Gumiguru, zvinhu zvakaunganidzwa negasi muEurope zvaive pa3,926.271 bhiriyoni cubic feet, zvichikwira ne43.34 bhiriyoni cubic feet, kana kuti 1.12%, kubva pavhiki rapfuura, sekureva kweEuropean Gas Infrastructure Association. Zvinhu zvakaunganidzwa zvaive 319.287 bhiriyoni cubic feet, kana 8.85%, zvakakwirira kupfuura gore rapfuura.

Vhiki rino, zvinhu zviri muUS zvakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira, zvichiita kuti vanotenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika varambe vachimirira, kudiwa kwevatengi vakawanda pamusika kwakaderera zvakanyanya, kukura kwezviwanikwa muUS kwakawedzera. Zvinhu zviri muEurope zvakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, zvino zvave kusvika pa98%, uye kudzikira kwekukura kwezvinhu zviri muUS kunotarisirwa kudzikira mune ramangwana.

c) Kupinza nekuburitsa kunze kwemvura

US inotarisirwa kuunza 0m³ muchikamu chino (10.23-10.29); United States inotarisirwa kutumira kunze 3,900,000 m³, iyo yakaderera ne4.88% pane huwandu chaihwo hwekutengesa kunze hwe410,00,000 m³ muchikamu chapfuura.

Parizvino, kushaikwa kwezvinodiwa mumusika wevatengi vakuru uye zvinhu zvakawanda zviri muzvitoro zvakaita kuti kutengeswa kweLNG kuUS kudzikire.

a) Pfupiso yemusika

Kubva musi wa25 Gumiguru, mutengo weLNG terminal waive 5,268 yuan/ton, wakakwira ne7% kubva svondo rapfuura, wakaderera ne32.45% gore negore; Mutengo wenzvimbo huru yekugadzira waive 4,772 yuan/ton, wakakwira ne8.53% kubva svondo rapfuura uye wakaderera ne27.43% gore negore.

Mitengo iri kukwira zvakanyanya. Nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yefekitori yeNorthwest liquid uye mutengo wepamusoro wemvura yemugungwa, mitengo iri kukwira zvakanyanya uye zvinhu zvinotumirwa zvinokonzereswa nekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvinotumirwa.

Kubva musi wa25 Gumiguru, avhareji yemutengo weLNG wakagamuchirwa munyika yese yaive 5208 yuan/tani, yakakwira ne7.23% kubva vhiki rapfuura uye yakadzikira ne28.12% gore negore. Zviwanikwa zvepamusoro zvinokanganiswa nemutengo wekutumira zvinhu, zvichiita kuti musika uwane mitengo yezvinhu yakakwira.

Kubva musi wa24 Gumiguru, huwandu hwese hwezvinhu zveLNG zvemuno hwaive matani 328,300 pazuva rimwe chete, zvichidzika ne14.84% kubva munguva yakapfuura. Sezvo mitengo yakakwira uye zvinhu zvakatengeswa zvakatevedzana, kutengeswa kwezviwanikwa zvepakutanga kwaive kwakanaka, izvo zvakaita kuti zvinhu zvidzikire.

b) Zvekugovera

Vhiki rino (10.19-10.25) huwandu hwekushanda kwezvirimwa zveLNG zvemuno 236 hunoratidza kuti kugadzirwa chaiko kwe742.94 miriyoni masikweya, chiyero chekushanda cheChitatu chino che64.6%, kwakagadzikana svondo rapfuura. Huwandu hwekushanda hunoshanda neChitatu chino hwe67.64%, hwakawedzera ne0.01 muzana kubva svondo rapfuura. Huwandu hwezvirimwa zvitsva zvekugadzirisa nekuvharwa i1, ine huwandu hwe700,000 cubic metres/zuva; Huwandu hwemafekitori matsva akatangwazve i0, ine huwandu hwe0 miriyoni masikweya mita/zuva. (Cherechedza: Kugona kushanda kunotsanangurwa sekunge kugadzirwa kwakamiswa kwemakore anopfuura maviri; Kugona kushanda kunoreva kugona kweLNG mushure mekusabvisa kugona kushanda. Huwandu hwekugadzira kweLNG yemuno hwe163.05 miriyoni masikweya mita/zuva, ne28 kuvharwa kwenguva refu, 7.29 miriyoni masikweya mita/zuva ine huwandu hwekushanda uye 155.76 miriyoni masikweya mita/zuva ine huwandu hwekushanda.)

Panyaya yemvura yemugungwa, huwandu hwengarava dzeLNG makumi maviri dzakagamuchirwa pazviteshi gumi nezvitatu zvekugamuchira ngarava dzemuno mudenderedzwa iri, kuwedzera kwengarava shanu kupfuura vhiki rapfuura, uye huwandu hwechiteshi hwaive matani 1,291,300, 37.49% zvichienzaniswa nematani 939,200 svondo rapfuura. Nyika huru dzinotenga zvinhu zvinotengeswa mudenderedzwa iri iAustralia, Qatar neMalaysia, nengarava dzakasvika pachiteshi ichi dzinosvika matani 573,800, matani 322,900 uye matani 160,700 zvichiteerana. Pachiteshi chimwe nechimwe chekugamuchira ngarava, CNOOC Dapeng yakagamuchira ngarava nhatu, CNPC Caofeidian neCNOOC Binhai dzakagamuchira ngarava mbiri imwe neimwe, uye dzimwe nzvimbo dzekugamuchira ngarava dzakagamuchira ngarava imwe chete imwe neimwe.

c) Kudiwa

Huwandu hwese hweLNG yemuno vhiki rino (10.18-10.24) hwaive matani 721,400, kudzikira kwematani 53,700, kana 6.93%, kubva pavhiki rapfuura (10.11-10.17). Kutumirwa kwemafekitori emuno kwakasvika matani 454,200, kudzikira kwematani 35,800, kana 7.31%, kubva pavhiki rapfuura (10.11-10.17). Nekuda kwenzvimbo yekugamuchira nefekitori yemvura, mutengo wekutumira wakakwira, kuramba kwemitengo yakakwira, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwekutumira.

Panyaya yemvura yemugungwa, huwandu hwese hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa mudzimba hwaive motokari 14,055, zvichidzikira ne9.48% kubva pamotokari 14,055 svondo rapfuura (10.11-10.17), nzvimbo inotumirwa yakakwidza mutengo wezvinhu zvinotumirwa, zvinhu zvinotumirwa pasi pemvura zvaive zvisingatsungiririki, uye huwandu hwese hwezvinhu zvinotumirwa mumatangi hwakadzikira.

Nguva yekutumira: Gumiguru-27-2023