Nhau

Misika yeEurope yakaramba yakakwira uye yakashata svondo rino, uye mamiriro ezvinhu kuMiddle East akamanikidza Chevron kuvhara gasi remuSyria, uye musika wakaramba uchitya, asi mitengo yemangwana yeTTF yaive yakakwira uye isingachinji nekuda kwekuwanda kwemusika.

MuUnited States, nekuda kwekuderera kwekuda uye kupera simba kwekutya, iyo LNG yeUnited States inotengeswa kunze kwenyika yadzikira svondo rino, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwadzikira, uye kupihwa kwegasi rakasvibirira kubva kune kunze kwenyika kwakaderera, asi nekuda kwekuchinja kwezvibvumirano zvemangwana zveNG. mwedzi uno, mutengo wegasi rechisikigo muUnited States wakakwira.

a) Kuongorora kwemusika

Kubva munaOctober 24, United States Henry Port gasi rekare (NG) mutengo weramangwana waiva 3.322 US madhora / mamiriyoni eBritish thermal, zvichienzaniswa neyakapfuura kutenderera (10.17) yakawedzera ne 0.243 US dollars / mamiriyoni eBritish thermal, kuwedzera kwe7,89%; The Dutch natural gas (TTF) ramangwana mutengo waiva $15.304 / mmBTU, kumusoro $0.114 / mmBTU kubva yapfuura kutenderera (10.17), kana 0.75%.

MuUnited States, United States Henry Port (NG) remangwana mitengo yakaratidza rebound maitiro mushure mekuderera kwese kwevhiki, United States gasi rechisikigo remangwana mitengo yakaratidza kuderera kwevhiki ino, asi nekuda kwekukanganisa kwechibvumirano chekuchinja, NG ramangwana mitengo yakakwira.

Padivi rekutumira kunze, US LNG inotengeswa kunze kwenyika yakadonha svondo rino nekuda kwekushomeka uye kuderera kwekutya, uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwadzikira.

Kubva pakuona kwehunyanzvi, United States Henry Port futures (NG) inzvimbo yakaderera yekukwira, iyo United States Henry Port futures (NG) mutengo kune 3.34 US madhora / mamiriyoni eBritish fever pedyo, KDJ yakaderera yava kuda kusimuka. yeforogo, MACD pazasi zero bottoming, kuderera kwakamira, United States Henry Port ramangwana (NG) mutengo vhiki ino yakaratidza kuderera rebound maitiro.

MuEurope, musika weEuropean inventory wakaramba uchiwedzera, sekureva kweEuropean Natural Gas Infrastructure Association data inoratidza kuti kubva muna Gumiguru 23, iyo yakazara inventory muEurope yaive 1123Twh, ine huwandu hwehuwandu hwe98.63%, kuwedzera kwe0.05% zuva rapfuura, uye kuwedzera kwakadzikama kwekuverenga.

Kubva muna Gumiguru 24, iyo US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) inotarisirwa kuona mitengo yemadhora 2.95 / mmBTU, ichikwira $ 0.01 / mmBTU kubva kukota yapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe0.34%. Canadian Natural Gas (AECO) mutengo wenzvimbo yaive $1.818 / mmBTU, yakakwira $0.1 / mmBTU kubva pamwedzi wapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe5.83%.

Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) inotarisira kuti mitengo yenzvimbo irambe yakagadzikana, LNG inotengeswa kunze kwenyika yaderera, iyo huru yevatengi inodiwa kunze kwedunhu kuti irambe yakagadzikana, pasina pachena rutsigiro rwakanaka, Henry Port Natural gas (HH) inotarisirwa kuramba yakagadzikana mitengo yenzvimbo. .

Kubva muna Gumiguru 24, iyo Northeast Asia nzvimbo yekusvika China (DES) mutengo waive $17.25 / miriyoni BTU, kumusoro $0.875 / miriyoni BTU kubva kota yapfuura (10.17), kuwedzera kwe5,34%; TTF nzvimbo mutengo waiva $14.955 / mmBTU, kumusoro $0.898 / mmBTU kubva yapfuura kota (10.17), kuwedzera 6.39%.

Mitengo yenzvimbo dzevatengi iri kukwira, iko zvino kuvhunduka kukuru kwevatengi kwakazadzwa, fungidziro yemusika yakasimba, vatengesi vanokwira kumusoro kutengesa kwemitengo, kutyaira mitengo huru yevatengi yakwira.

b) Inventory

Kwevhiki yakapera Gumiguru 13, maererano neUS Energy Agency, US gasi rezvinyorwa zvegasi raive 3,626 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kuwedzera kwe97 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kana 2.8%; Inventories yaive 3,000 cubic tsoka, kana 9.0%, yakakwira kupfuura gore rapfuura. Ndiyo 175 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kana 5.1%, pamusoro peavhareji yemakore mashanu.

Kwevhiki rakapera Gumiguru 13, zvigadzirwa zvegasi zveEurope zvakamira pa3,926.271 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kusvika 43.34 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kana 1.12%, kubva svondo rapfuura, sekureva kweEuropean Gas Infrastructure Association. Inventories yaive 319.287 bhiriyoni cubic tsoka, kana 8.85%, yakakwira kupfuura gore rapfuura.

Vhiki rino, yeUS gasi hesitori yakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma, nekuda kwemitengo yakakwira, zvichitungamira kune vanopinda kunze kwenyika zvakanyanya kumirira-uye-kuona maitiro, iyo huru yevatengi musika yekutenga nzvimbo yekutenga yakaderera zvakanyanya, iyo US inventory yekukura mwero wakakwira. Inventories muEurope yakakura zvishoma nezvishoma, iko zvino ichikwira kusvika ku98%, uye kuderera kwekukura kwezvinyorwa kunotarisirwa kuderera mune ramangwana.

c) Liquid import uye export

IUS inotarisirwa kuendesa kunze kwenyika 0m³ mukutenderera uku (10.23-10.29); United States inotarisirwa kutumira kunze 3,900,000 m³, iri 4.88% yakaderera pane iyo chaiyo vhoriyamu yekutengesa kunze kwenyika ye410,00,000 m³ mukutenderera kwapfuura.

Parizvino, kudiwa kwakashata mumusika mukuru wevatengi uye matura epamusoro zvakakonzera kudzikira kweUS LNG kunze kwenyika.

a) Kuongorora kwemusika

Kubva munaOctober 25, mutengo weLNG wekupedzisira waiva 5,268 yuan / ton, kusvika 7% kubva vhiki yapfuura, pasi 32.45% gore negore; Mutengo wenzvimbo huru yekugadzira waive 4,772 yuan/ton, kumusoro 8.53% kubva svondo rapfuura uye pasi 27.43% gore-pa-gore.

Mitengo yekumusoro inoratidza kukwira. Nekuda kwekukwira kwemutengo weNorthwest liquid chirimwa uye nemutengo wepamusoro wemvura yemugungwa, mitengo yekumusoro inosimudzwa uye kutumira kunofambiswa nekukwira kwemitengo yekutumira.

Kubva munaGumiguru 25, avhareji mutengo weLNG yakagamuchirwa munyika yose yaive 5208 yuan/ton, yakakwira 7.23% kubva svondo rapfuura uye ichidzika 28.12% gore-pagore. Zviwanikwa zvekumusoro zvinokanganiswa nemutengo wekutakura, kutyaira musika kuti ugamuchire mitengo yezvinhu yakakwira.

Kubva muna Gumiguru 24, huwandu hwese hwezvidyarwa zveLNG zvemumba hwaive matani mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nemazana matatu nemazana matatu pazuva rimwe chete, zvichidzika 14.84% kubva panguva yapfuura. Sezvo kukwidza kwakakwira zvakateerana mitengo uye kutengeswa zvinhu, kutanga kwekutengesa zviwanikwa kwaive kwakapfava, izvo zvakakonzera kudzikira kwechinyorwa.

b) Supply

Vhiki rino (10.19-10.25) chiyero chekushanda che236 mudzimba LNG tsvakurudzo data inoratidza kuti chaiyo kugadzirwa 742.94 mamiriyoni square, ichi Chitatu kushanda mwero 64,6%, yakagadzikana svondo rapfuura. Ichi Chitatu chekushanda kwehuwandu hwekushanda kwe67.64%, kukwira 0.01 muzana kubva svondo rapfuura. Huwandu hwezvirimwa zvitsva zvekuchengetedza nekuvhara ndeye 1, ine huwandu hwese hwe700,000 cubic metres / zuva; Huwandu hwemafekitori achangotangwazve i0, iine huwandu hunosvika 0 miriyoni square metres/zuva. (Cherechedza: Kusashanda simba kunotsanangurwa sekugadzirwa kwakamiswa kweanopfuura makore maviri; Kushanda kwesimba kunoreva kusimba kweLNG mushure mekusasanganisa kusaita basa. Iyo yakazara yepamba LNG yekugadzira huwandu ndeye 163.05 miriyoni cubic metres / zuva, ine makumi maviri nemasere-kuvharika kwenguva refu, 7.29 miriyoni cubic metres / zuva rekusaita basa uye 155.76 miriyoni cubic metres / zuva rekugona kushanda.)

Panyaya yemvura yemugungwa, huwandu hwemakumi maviri evatakuri veLNG hwakagamuchirwa pazviteshi gumi nenhatu zvekugamuchira mudzimba mukutenderera uku, kuwedzera kwezvikepe zvishanu pasvondo rapfuura, uye vhoriyamu yechiteshi yaive 1,291,300 matani, 37.49% zvichienzaniswa ne939,200 matani svondo rapfuura. Iwo makuru ekunze anotorwa nyika mukutenderera uku iAustralia, Qatar neMalaysia, nevanosvika pachiteshi che573,800 matani, 322,900 matani uye 160,700 matani, zvichiteerana. Pachiteshi chega chega chekugamuchira, CNOOC Dapeng yakagamuchira ngarava dze3, CNPC Caofeidian uye CNOOC Binhai yakagamuchira ngarava dze2 imwe neimwe, uye imwe nhepfenyuro yakagamuchira 1 ngarava imwe neimwe.

c) Kudiwa

Iyo yakazara yepamba LNG inoda svondo rino (10.18-10.24) yaive 721,400 matani, kudzikira kwe53,700 matani, kana 6.93%, kubva svondo rapfuura (10.11-10.17). Kutakurwa kwefekitori yemumba kwakasvika 454,200 matani, kudzikira kwe35,800 matani, kana 7.31%, kubva svondo rapfuura (10.11-10.17). Nekuda kwechiteshi chekugamuchira uye chirimwa chemvura chakakwidza mutengo wekutumira, kunonoka kudzika kwepamusoro kwemutengo wekutambira, zvichifambisa kudzikiswa kwekutakura.

Panyaya yemvura yemugungwa, huwandu hwese hwekutakura kwezviteshi zvekugamuchira mudzimba hwaive 14,055 mota, pasi 9.48% kubva pamotokari gumi neina svondo rapfuura (10.11-10.17), chiteshi chekugamuchira chakasimudza mutengo wekutakura, kuburuka kwakadzika kwakawedzera kusagadzikana, uye huwandu hwese hwekutakura matangi hwakaramba.

Nguva yekutumira: Oct-27-2023