2023 yasvika mukupera kwegore, tichitarisa kumashure gore rino, musika wepasi rose wemafuta asina kuchena muOPEC + kugadzirwa kwekucheka uye kuvhiringidzika kwezvematongerwo enyika kunogona kutsanangurwa sekusingafungidzirwe, kukwira nekudzika.

1. Ongororo yemitengo yepasi rose isina mafuta pamusika muna 2023

Gore rino, oiri yepasi rose (Brent futures) yese yakaratidza kuderera, asi mutengo wepakati wegiravhiti wachinja zvakanyanya. Kubva muna Gumiguru 31, mutengo wepakati we2023 Brent crude oil remangwana waive 82.66 US madhora / mbiya, pasi 16.58% kubva paavhareji mutengo gore rapfuura. Mafambiro emitengo yemafuta epasi rose gore rino anoratidza hunhu hwe "pakati pesimba rinokwevera zvinhu pasi, iyo yaimbove yakaderera uye yakakwira", uye matambudziko akasiyana ehupfumi akadai sedambudziko remabhangi muEurope neUnited States rakabuda pasi pekumashure. yemhindu yakakwira muhafu yekutanga yegore, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemitengo yemafuta, ichidzika kusvika 16%. Mushure mekupinda muhafu yechipiri yegore, nekuda kwerutsigiro rwenyika zhinji dzinogadzira oiri senge OPEC + kugadzirwa kwekucheka, izvo zvakakosha zvakatanga kuratidza, OPEC + kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwekucheka kwakapfuura mamirioni mazana maviri nemazana matanhatu emadhiramu / zuva, zvakaenzana ne2.7% yepasi rose kugadzirwa kwemafuta asina kuchena. , kutyaira mitengo yemafuta kukwira kweanenge 20%, Brent crude oil futures zvakare yakadzokera kune yakakwirira kupfuura $80 / barrel.

Iyo 2023 Brent range i$71.84- $96.55 / BBL, ine nzvimbo yepamusoro inoitika munaGunyana 27 uye yakaderera muna Chikumi 12. $70- $90 padhiramu ndiyo inonyanya kushandiswa kweBrent crude oil futures muna 2023. Kubva Gumiguru 31, WTI. uye Brent crude oil remangwana rakadonha ne$12.66/barrel uye $9.14/barrel zvichiteerana kubva pakukwirira kwegore.

Mushure mekupinda muna Gumiguru, nekuda kwekukakavadzana kwePalestine neIsrael, mitengo yemafuta epasi rose yakakwira zvakanyanya pasi peiyo geopolitical risk premium, asi nekupokana kusingakanganisi kubuda kwenyika huru dzinogadzira oiri, njodzi dzekupa dzakadzikira, uye OPEC neUnited States. Nyika dzakawedzera kugadzirwa kwemafuta asina kuchena, mitengo yemafuta yakadonha pakarepo. Kunyanya, kukakavara kwakatanga muna Gumiguru 7, uye kubva muna Gumiguru 19, Brent crude oil futures yakakwira ne $4.23 / barrel. Kubva muna Gumiguru 31, Brent crude oil remangwana yaive $87.41 / mbiya, yakadzika $4.97 / mbiya kubva Gumiguru 19, ichidzima zvese zvakawanikwa kubva pahondo yeIsrael nePalestine.

Ii. Ongororo yezvakanyanya kupesvedzera zvinhu zvepasi rose crude mafuta musika muna 2023

Muna 2023, zvese macroeconomic uye geopolitical pesvedzero pamitengo yemafuta asina kuchena yakawedzera. Iko kukanganisa kwe macroeconomic pamafuta asina kuchena kunonyanya kutariswa padivi rekudiwa. Muna Kurume gore rino, dambudziko rebhangi muEurope neUnited States rakaputika, kutaura kwehawkish kweFederal Reserve kwakaunzwa zvakanyanya muna Kubvumbi, njodzi yekukwira kwechikwereti muUnited States yakaiswa mukumanikidzwa muna Chivabvu, uye kufarira kwakanyanya. mwero wemamiriro ekunze akakonzerwa nekukwira kwemitengo muna Chikumi kwakayera hupfumi, uye kushaya simba uye kushaya simba padanho rehupfumi zvakadzvinyirira mutengo wemafuta epasi rose kubva munaKurume kusvika Chikumi. Yakavewo chinhu chikuru chakashata chekuti mitengo yemafuta epasi rose haigone kukwira muhafu yekutanga yegore. Mumamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika, kubuda kwehondo yeIsrael-Palestine muna Gumiguru 7, njodzi yezvematongerwo enyika yakawedzera zvakare, uye mutengo wemafuta epasi rose wakadzokera kune yakakwira pedyo nemadhora makumi mapfumbamwe / dhiramu pasi pekutsigirwa kweizvi, asi nemusika ongororazve iyo chaiyo. Kukanganisa kwechiitiko ichi, kunetseka nezve njodzi dzekupa kwakadzikira, uye mitengo yemafuta asina kuchena yakadonha.

Parizvino, maererano neiyo huru inopesvedzera zvinhu, inogona kupfupikiswa sezvinotevera: ingave iyo Israel-Palestine kunetsana kuchakanganisa kubuda kwevagadziri vemafuta makuru, kuwedzera kweOPEC + kugadzirwa kwekucheka kusvika pakupera kwegore, kuzorora. yezvirango zvakapesana neVenezuela neUnited States, kukwira kweUS crude oil kugadzirwa kusvika padanho repamusoro pagore, kufambira mberi kwekukwira kwemitengo muEurope neUnited States, kuita chaiko kwekudiwa kweAsia, kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kweIran uye shanduko. mupfungwa yevatengesi.

Ndedzipi pfungwa dziri seri kwekushanduka kwemusika wepasi rose wemafuta asina kuchena muna 2023? Pasi pemhirizhonga ye geopolitical, ndeipi nzira yemusika wemafuta asina kuchena inotevera? Musi waNovember 3, 15:00-15:45, Longzhong Ruzivo ichavhura nhepfenyuro yemusika wepagore muna 2023, iyo inokupa dudziro yakadzama yemutengo wemafuta, macroeconomic hot spots, kupa uye kudiwa zvakakosha uye remangwana mutengo wemafuta. kufanotaura, kufanotaura mamiriro emusika muna 2024 pamberi, uye batsira kufambisa kuronga kwekambani!